S.A. job growth falling below initial projections

Source: San Antonio Express-NewsAug.迷你倉 29--Two local economists on Wednesday dialed back their first-of-the-year job-growth predictions for San Antonio and Texas, but also said they expect the labor market to strengthen in 2014.Keith Phillips and Steve Nivin blamed government-policy uncertainty and lost paychecks due to government budget cutbacks for stalling the state's and city's economic growth.They addressed about 300 people at a midyear economic update luncheon held by the San Antonio Hispanic and North San Antonio chambers of commerce at the Omni Hotel,Nivin, chief economist for the SABeR Research Institute, said San Antonio's 2013 job growth will come in between 1 and 2 percent, or a range of 8,882 to 17,764 additional jobs. The new range is down from Nivin's initial prediction early this year that San Antonio's job base would grow between 2.25 and 2.75 percent, or a range of between 20,039 and 24,492 additional jobs.Phillips, senior policy adviser at the San Antonio branch of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, said Wednesday that Texas employment growth will fall into a 2 to 2.5 percent range, down from his initial forecast for the year of between 2 and 3 percent.Nivin said San Antonio's job growth began to stall in September 2012. Between July 2012 and July 2013, the city's jobs base grew only 1.09 percent, weaker than the 2.53 percent in Texas and 1.7 percent nationally over the same time period. San Antonio's average annual job growth since 1990 is 5.3 percent.Energy employment has grown strongly, thanks to the d儲存倉illing activity in the Eagle Ford Shale region. But financial activity, manufacturing, wholesale and federal employment have seen declines, Nivin said.San Antonio is more vulnerable to government employment and reduced government health-care grants than other large Texas cities because the Alamo City's job percentages in those categories are higher than average, Nivin said.Phillips said manufacturing employment is suffering because companies cannot find skilled labor to fill vacant positions. Nationally, economic growth is being held back by employers' uncertainty over the effects of the Affordable Care Act.Texas has fallen from being that state with the third-best job growth in the nation in 2012 to 15th best this year, Phillips said, mostly because the state recovered more quickly from the 2007-09 recession and is leveling off while other states are beginning to experience a stronger rebound.Texas job growth should accelerate to a 2.5 to 3 percent rate in 2014, Phillips said."It's soft," Hispanic Chamber President and CEO Ramiro Cavazos said of the local economy after the presentations."A big part is the uncertainty in Washington. The only thing sustaining us is local consumer spending, which is two-thirds of the economy," he said. "We only have ourselves to rely on because it doesn't seem Washington is showing any economic leadership."dhendricks@express-news.netCopyright: ___ (c)2013 the San Antonio Express-News Visit the San Antonio Express-News at .mysanantonio.com Distributed by MCT Information Services迷你倉價錢